ADVANTAGE

テロの標的にならなくなる

米軍基地がなくなる

アメリカの戦争に巻き込まれなくなる

DISADVANTAGE

北朝鮮からのミサイル防衛

尖閣諸島の実効支配

災害時に米軍の支援がない

シーレーン

ロシアが侵攻してくる

サイバーテロ（Uniquness不明）

」」」」」」」」」」」」」」」」」」」」」」」

モデル立論

※エビデンスは必ず原典に当たってから使用するようにしてください。ディストーションなどの指摘を受けた場合も自己責任でお願いします。

 

Affirmative Constructive Speech

 

AD1: Security  (日本の安全保障)

a) Present Situation

Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, so called J.U.S.T. is a treaty of mutual cooperation between Japan and U.S. It is defined that U.S. protect Japan instead of lending Japanese areas.　However, Japan can be involved into U.S. military affair.

 

Researcher 福田 said in 2006, (日米防衛協力における３つの転機1978年ガイドラインから｢日米同盟の変革｣までの道程/レファレンス平成18年７月号/p151/福田毅(現在、国立国会図書館調査及び立法考査局外交防衛課))

Q) There is a concept of “security dilemma on treaty”. In short, there are two fears, fear to be abandoned by the allied state and fear to be involved in the affair of allied nation. In present Japan, problems about collective self-defense can exactly be the example of the dilemma. (UQ

 

Moreover, Japan is viewed as enemy from anti-U.S. nation. 1st reason is that Japan supports U.S. military strategy. 2nd reason is that U.S. bases in Japan are used for attack. The actual case was Iraq war.

Professor 延近（のぶちか）said in 2003, (延近充/慶応大学経済学部教授/http://web.econ.keio.ac.jp/info/staff/nobu/profile/official.htm http://web.econ.keio.ac.jp/staff/nobu/column/column030318.htm『アメリカのイラク攻撃と日本政府の立場』(2003-03-18)[available on 2015-5-2])

Q) The Iraqi side will receive the Japanese Self-Defense Forces participation as one of the military campaign of the United States, especially if Japan continues to supply. Moreover, there are many U.S. bases in Japan, which are used for U.S. attack. Regardless of the opinions of the Japanese government, Japan becomes an enemy both in name and in reality. (UQ

 

b) Effect

After plan, by terminating J.U.S.T, Japan will not be involved in U.S. military strategy.

As a result, risk of terror will decrease.

 

Professor せばた said in 2005, (瀬端孝夫 / 日米同盟の変質と日本の安全保障 / 2005年  

[ http://reposit.sun.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/10561/308/1/v6p229_sebata.pdf ] 2015/5/2[http://sun.ac.jp/research/researcher/researcher_detail/?uid=tsebata]) 

Q) Terror threat becomes problem after 9.11 for US and its allied nations. If Japan terminate J.U.S.T, she abolishes U.S. base in Japan, and takes neutral stance. The reasons for terror group attack against Japan will considerably decrease. In order to prevent terror attack, diplomatic policy is crucial. (UQ 

 

Actually, after stopping involvement in U.S. military strategy, terrorist perception was changed and stopped terror attack.

朝日新聞デジタル said in 2015, ([http://www.asahi.com/special/iraqrecovery/TKY200403180152.html]

「次は日本か米国か」アルカイダ傘下名乗る組織が声明/ 03-18 10:57/available on 2015-5-5会社説明　[http://www.asahi.com/shimbun/company/outline/])

Q) In connection with the train-bomb terror in Madrid by the Al-Qaeda, statement has arrived to Arab paper mentioning withdrawal policy of the Spanish troops from Iraq. This was announced by the elected next Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero, and said “Spanish chose peace”. Then, the Al-Qaeda announced “We decided to stop attacking Spain.” This statement arrived to other papers. (UQ

 

c) Importance

Military Alliance with U.S. rather increase risk for Japan.

Actually, due to participation in U.S. military strategy, Japanese people were killed by terrorists, and U.S. related facilities in Japan was claimed as the target for terror.

 

Weekly 朝日  said in 2013, (Dot.asahi.com/朝日新聞出版のニュース・情報サイト/http://dot.asahi.com/wa/2013012900011.html週刊朝日 2013年2月8日号/『日本人はなぜテロの標的に？　理由は「米国の下請け」だから』/available on 2015-4-27)

Q) In Iraq war, Japan dispatched the Self-Defense Forces and showed strong attitude of pro-US. On next November, two Japanese diplomats were killed by gun shots at northern Iraq. In 2004, it was revealed that Al-Qaeda had plan to crush hijacked airliner into US-related facilities in Japan. Even "taking part" of the United States has emerged the reality to become a target. (UQ

 

AD2: U.S. Base (米軍基地)　

a) Present Situation

Under the status quo, because of J.U.S.T, U.S. bases and U.S. army exist in Japan.

However, U.S. base disturb around people’s daily life. One example is noise.

 

日本共産党 said in 2014 (2014年7月18日(金) / 米軍騒音被害が急増　その上オスプレイ？！/ [Online] Available on 2015.5.20 [http://www.jcp.or.jp/akahata/aik14/2014-07-18/2014071804_02_1.html])

Q) More than 70 decibels of noise frequently occur around U.S. base and is increasing, which is a seed of headache, as reported. In 2013, 11 thousand times around Yokota base, 9 thousand times around Hakonegasaki, and more than 10 thousand times around Fussa-city. (UQ

 

Moreover, U.S. army commits brutal crimes. However, Japanese government cannot prosecute them because of U.S. special right.

 

琉球新報  said in 2012, (琉球新報2012年8月23日 /米軍関係者の起訴１３％　性犯罪全て不起訴

 

[http://ryukyushimpo.jp/news/storyid-195996-storytopic-111.html　2012/8/23] [ON-LINE] available on 2015-03-01)

Q) Committee of Japanese peace revealed, US army’s prosecution rate is very low and their crimes including rape and assault crimes, are received by special right. It indicates secret agreement which decided Japan never use Primary jurisdiction except for crucial cases against Japan. (UQ

 

b) Effect

After plan, U.S. base will disappear by terminating J.U.S.T. As a result, noise problems and crimes caused by U.S. army will disappear. 

 

c) Importance

We should solve this problem because status quo is irrational as a governmental stance. National sovereignty is infringed, and nation’s daily life is sacrificed.

 

Professor目黒 said in 2012, (目黒博/ 2012.03 / 名古屋外国語大学現代国際学部紀要第8号/ 論文沖縄基地問題はなぜねじれるのか？-沖縄と本土の認識ギャップについての一考察)

 

Q) The returned Okinawa were not given the same position as dreamed of. Rather, it resulted in uneven distribution of U.S. military. From the viewpoint of Okinawa, it is the main land’s optimistic pacifism under U.S. military bases, leaving security to the U.S. (UQ 

 

Negative Constructive Speech

 

DA1: Russian Invasion (ロシアの侵略)

a) Present situation

Under the status quo, Asian power balance and Japanese deterrent power is maintained by J.U.S.T.  

 

Researcher 吉川 said in 2011, (吉川由紀枝（よしかわゆきえ）/ ライシャワーセンター(アジア太平洋研究所)　アジャンクトフェロー / 2011.10.21 開国ジャパンプロジェクト / コラム / 日米同盟はなぜ必要か？/ [http://kaikoku-japan.net/column/4047] [Online] Available on 2015.5.20)

Q) Japanese SDF and U.S forces in Japan combined have leading military power, and maintains power balance in the East Asia. (UQ

 

b) Effect

However, after plan, these factors disappear. As a result, Russia will start to seek Northern territory like Hokkaido.

 

Same source

Q) Termination of the alliance will cause a sudden collapse in power balance, then Russia might start to invade Hokkaido. Considering history, actually after the World War Ⅱ, Russia claimed the territorial right of Hokkaido. Asia will be risked into the war. (UQ

 

Actually, recent Russia invaded Ukraine territory by military power, violating international law and political moral.

 

Professor Somin said in 2014, (Ilya Somin / Professor of Law at George Mason University. / August 28, 2014 /Don’t forget about Russia’s invasion and occupation of Crimea / The Washington Post / [Online] Available on 2015.5.21 /[http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2014/08/28/Dont-forget-about-Russias-invasion-Crimea/])

Q) Russian military forces including tanks, trained forces and uniformed soldiers crossed the border into Ukraine, started a hostile invasion and act of war. This is indefensible as a matter of international law and political morality. The occupation led to serious violation of human right. (UQ

 

c) Importance

Military invasion kills people.

 

DA2: Tomodachi Operation (ともだち作戦)

a) Present Situation

Thanks to J.U.S.T, in case of a disaster, U.S. army helps Japan. There are many actual cases in the past.

 

Researcher中林 said in 2017, (啓修 / 人と未来防災センター研究員 / 地域安全学会論文集 No.30, 2017.3 / 米軍による日本国内での災害救援-阪神・淡路大震災以降の展開- / http://isss.jp.net/isss-site/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2016-065.pdf)

Q) Domestic disaster rescue by U.S. army was often done in Hanshin Awaji great earthquake. For example, U.S. army in Japan provided goods and the carriage in Chuetsu earthquake in 2004 and in Chuetsu-Oki earthquake in 2007. The largest scale domestic disaster rescue by U.S. army in Japan was in the Eastern Japan great earthquake on March 11, 2011. (UQ

 

b) Effect

After plan, there is no U.S. army. Therefore, if a disaster occurs, rescue by SDF will not be enough because even in the status quo, the number of SDF members is decreasing.

 

日刊現代デジタル  said in 2015, (任官拒否」急増で隊員不足…自衛隊がリクルート活動に必死 / 2015年7月10日 / https://www.nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/news/161634/1)

Q) A defense Ministry is eager in "soldier recruiting". The explanatory meeting "True Japan Self-Defense Forces which the mass media never report" is held from the end of this month. It seems like a job seminar of  private companies, but there is a serious lack of SDF members in the background. 13,718 SDF members have decreased in these 10 years until 2013. "Appointment refusal" by the graduate of the National Defense Academy was jumped up five times in these 4 years. (UQ

 

c) Importance